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You've got to apply the reverse as well, any point we prevent those below us getting reduces the likelihood of them catching us.
Yeah but I'm not worried about that.
In terms of quick improvements though it should be easier to pick up more points than we did in the away games against the 13 below us than in any games vs the top 6. Chelsea last season is a good example.
That's a nice theory. But this is the Premier League. And when Sean Dyche was plotting where to pick up away points this season, he probably didn't expect to do that in their first away game. Shouldn't we just look to win each game as it comes, rather than deciding which teams we should be getting the points from in advance?
Yes but every team will look at the types of games they should be winning. If you're not winning most of those it's very hard to get where you want to be. It's no good Burnley winning at Chelsea if they don't beat Huddersfield and 3 other equivalents at home. I remember a Utd player saying that Ferguson used to target home and away wins vs the teams in the bottom half as the bedrock of their season, then the other games would determine how well they ended up doing. Obviously things don't go 100% the way that you plan but a basic expectation of 12 games vs bottom 6 and 12 vs top 6 would be fair to be (many) more points vs the former as we are better than them and should do well in those games.
While not disagreeing with you in general, we also need to take into account that any point against a top 6 team is a point they don't get, and thus lowers our target too.
Shane Duffy is genuinely better than Keane
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