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NSNO Forums => General Football Chat => Topic started by: van der Meyde on January 22, 2017, 07:00:12 PM

Title: Nerdy Stats and Data Stuff
Post by: van der Meyde on January 22, 2017, 07:00:12 PM
I've spent a good 30 minutes playing about on this website:

http://unravelsports.nl/plot/pex

Please send more of this sort of thing my way, thanks.
Title: Re: Nerdy Stats and Data Stuff
Post by: dangermouse on April 10, 2017, 08:14:55 PM
As part of my own spreadsheet I use for EPL gambling... Have been looking at creating an app now for a few years but can never be arsed finishing it......

The front sheet gives a a good bit of info.... I created a rating system that ranks teams according to their performance against a league average....

Any questions ask away... 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WIs9IjgId4L6A4-SJR9nG1ueN68iifTGoZec_ayiQ0Q/edit#gid=851699816
Title: Re: Nerdy Stats and Data Stuff
Post by: MmmblueBernard on April 11, 2017, 03:58:29 AM
As part of my own spreadsheet I use for EPL gambling... Have been looking at creating an app now for a few years but can never be arsed finishing it......

The front sheet gives a a good bit of info.... I created a rating system that ranks teams according to their performance against a league average....

Any questions ask away... 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WIs9IjgId4L6A4-SJR9nG1ueN68iifTGoZec_ayiQ0Q/edit#gid=851699816

Will it make me rich?
Title: Nerdy Stats and Data Stuff
Post by: dangermouse on April 11, 2017, 04:27:24 AM
Will it make me rich?

More than anything it shows how crap it is betting on football.

It's based on historical and more recent stats so it's good at showing patterns.

The ratings give an indication of form and also how teams are performing against an expected level of performance.

Match result predictions always give the most likely result but it's possible to look at the numbers to see the likelihood of each outcome...

It predicts clean sheets quite well and matches with BTTS..

It's just spews out numbers and it's up to an individual to make a judgement, for example I bet on any BTTS result with a rating over 50.. since I revived it and had the balls to bet on outcomes it's got 19 out of 21 correct :) That is one of its best runs though.

Saturday it got all match results correct and the three BTTS matches.. I only bet on the BTTS though...

Looking at number crunching, the odds come out pretty similar to most bookies so I'm quite happy with that...

Data used includes the following weighted depending on significance...

Historical EPL league form home
Historical EPL goal scoring records
Historical EPL defensive records
Historical EPL head to head records
Current home form
Current away form
Goal scoring form home and away
Defensive form home and away
Various data from current EPL season...

I've tested it several times over the years and I'd say it performs as expected....

It did get tonight's Arsenal result wrong though....  :(