March 24, 2018, 09:34:32 PM

Author Topic: Steven N'Zonzi  (Read 10601 times)

Offline kramer0

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Re: Steven N'Zonzi
« on: December 30, 2017, 08:41:33 PM »
Don't count on it.

It's almost impossible in non North American sports. There's no relegation in North American sports. It's a completely different landscape on how you build your teams. There's also salary caps over here.

And by the way. The Oakland A's haven't won anything of significance in over 20 years.

I disagree completely.

There are plenty of market inefficiencies to be exploited in football, given the sheer number of players and leagues worldwide. The problem is that clubs are married to getting player recommendations from agents and "proper football men" and don't want to do the relatively easy work of hiring a bunch of football nerds to mine the data (or do video scouting for leagues that don't have reliable data) to find better transfer targets. There's a good reason why a club like Brentford, with a relegation budget by Championship standards, finishes comfortably mid-table every year while clubs with much greater resources finish below them. Edges are there for clubs who care to look.

In the major North American sports, especially baseball, teams control all of the major talent from the moment they become professionals. Analytics have taken off in these sports out of necessity. Talent acquisition is much more restricted (you can't just go out and buy whoever you want, whenever you want) and mistakes hurt a lot more, so teams need better methods for determining who's actually good. I think one of the reasons football has been so slow in adopting analytics is because clubs can always fix their mistakes with a sale (goodbye, bad contract) and another transfer (hello, fresh face), however wasteful that is. If an NBA team signs a bad player for a lot of money, they're usually stuck with his contract until it expires. So most (all?) NBA teams now have a dedicated analytics department to minimize these sorts of mistakes. Given the crazy wages being paid in the PL and the fact that it's getting harder and harder to shift players out, we would be wise to heed their example.

As for the A's... the core principles of their approach have been appropriated by every other team in baseball, including teams with a lot more money, so no surprise that they haven't been winning. Edges only exist for as long as you're one of a few (or better yet, the only one) exploiting them. Which is one of the many reasons why I'm keen to see Everton ditch the reliance on "proper football men" and move on to a more efficient mix of analytics and traditional/video scouting.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 10:27:24 PM by kramer0 »

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