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Author Topic: 18 games and 4th - historically, can we be excited?  (Read 2543 times)

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December 11, 2012, 06:52:00 PM
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Jimbo and the Jetset


Well because I'm bored and have no life, I looked back at the history of the EPL after 16 games.

Can we have cause to believe we might actually stay there?

In the 12 seasons since 2000/2001:-

The top 4 after 16 games stayed that way on the final day 7 times
The other 5 times only 1 of them changed.
Charlton and Leicester have both been in the top 4 during this period (00-12) after 16 games!

Dunno what it tells us other than we're in with a shout! nod

 
Life as an Evertonian isn't about waiting for the storm to pass...it's about learning to dance in the rain.

deCoubertin

December 11, 2012, 06:55:25 PM
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Major Clanger


I absolutely agree.









You really have no life. :)
The Shadow Over Inasmuch - The Adventures of Bicoid, Hunchback and Kruppel

December 11, 2012, 07:08:22 PM
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Jimmywhack

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Simply simply lovely


December 11, 2012, 08:01:09 PM
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chang


With the wind in a different direction we could / should of been at least joint 3rd right now....

December 11, 2012, 08:09:06 PM
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velimski



December 11, 2012, 08:33:25 PM
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McMoyes


I still think the Newcastle, Fulham and Norwich draws will come back and bite us.

6 alarmingly bad dropped points.
"Who is that shaven headed man with a lovely voice? It's Annie Lennox."


December 11, 2012, 08:44:23 PM
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Deano Blue Boy


Its going to be the tale of the two Evertons.

Of late we've been the horse that finishes like a steam train, but I remember the time when we'd come down with the Christmas deccies.

If its the former, we'll defo get four.

December 11, 2012, 09:29:22 PM
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Silas

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These dropped points aren't really catastrophic when you consider good results against city, Arsenal and Tottenham.  Three or four games ago people were saying we hadn't played anyone.  Now we have played man U, city, arsenal and Tottenham that can't really be said now.  Throw in a derby and I have to believe we are in with a shout.

Sent from the Dungeon Dimensions, its dark in here

December 11, 2012, 09:29:29 PM
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Mick 1995

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Lies, damned lies, and statistics

False accounting this.

The 4 teams that finish top of a league are the 4 best teams in the league (normally).
It's reasonable to assume that after a set number of games they will begin to establish themselves.

So the times that the top 4 remained the same will be the years the top 4 after 18 games were the United/City/Arsenal/Chelsea/Liverpool/Spurs/Newcastles/Leeds (whoever were the better teams at the season your looking at).

The times the top 4 did not remain the same will be the times Leicester/Us/Spurs/Blackpool/Charlton have got off to a great start and then the 'better' teams have overtaken them.

So as statistics they are pointless - all they show is that sometimes the top 4 remain the same and sometimes they dont.

December 11, 2012, 09:44:12 PM
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TheRam

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December 11, 2012, 10:17:49 PM
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Outworlder47


I still think the Newcastle, Fulham and Norwich draws will come back and bite us.

6 alarmingly bad dropped points.

Take Tottenham: They've allowed an injury time goal to draw vs West Brom, an equaliser 5 minutes from time to draw vs Norwich, and then the two goals in the last 5 minutes at Goodison. So that's 7 points dropped. And they laid an egg at home against Wigan, which is worse than our similar game at West Brom.

Or West Brom: They allowed a goal with 10 minutes to go to draw at Villa, Dzeko scored twice in the last 10 to flip a goal advantage, Newcastle scored an injury-time winner. 6 points dropped. Plus the controversial penalty decisions in the Arsenal game, which perhaps should have been a 1-1 draw instead of a 2-0 defeat.

Or Arsenal: They conceded twice in the last few minutes to lose at home to Swansea, and they have failed to score 5 times in 16 games, including twice to teams in the bottom 5.

My point is that the teams in the 4-8 range in the table are always going to drop these sorts of points at times. That's one of the things that differentiates them from the title challengers: the ability to completely and consistently shut down a team when required to assure the result.

We, like these other teams, have so far had a few issues seeing games out. Speculate if you will the reasons why, but we are far from the only side having these problems.

December 11, 2012, 10:21:38 PM
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Outworlder47


These dropped points aren't really catastrophic when you consider good results against city, Arsenal and Tottenham.  Three or four games ago people were saying we hadn't played anyone.  Now we have played man U, city, arsenal and Tottenham that can't really be said now.  Throw in a derby and I have to believe we are in with a shout.

Sent from the Dungeon Dimensions, its dark in here

This is why I think we're in good shape. We picked up some points that we perhaps might not have expected, getting 8 from Man Utd, @Man City, Arsenal, and Tottenham.

Tighten up a few things, and bring in a couple of fresh players in the winter window, and 4th is a realistic possibility (though I wouldn't call it a likelihood by any means).

December 11, 2012, 10:54:43 PM
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NomadskiEFC

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Bit of a Statto myself Jimbo, so always fun to see little stats like that, but pretty meaningless in the long term. However we ARE 4th, and we deserve to be higher given the awkward luck we have had for the most part.

Being 4th with lots of room for improvement in performance, luck and refereeing decisions is something I will take, while hoping we do a grand finish like we have done last few years.
Once A Blue NEVER a Red

December 11, 2012, 10:58:07 PM
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TheRam

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Bit of a Statto myself Jimbo, so always fun to see little stats like that, but pretty meaningless in the long term. However we ARE 4th, and we deserve to be higher given the awkward luck we have had for the most part.

Being 4th with lots of room for improvement in performance, luck and refereeing decisions is something I will take, while hoping we do a grand finish like we have done last few years.

Could you find a stat to show were we would be if the league started in January?

Cheers  :)

December 11, 2012, 11:01:52 PM
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Gash

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Could you find a stat to show were we would be if the league started in January?

Cheers  :)

Last season I'm sure it was top 4? I've got it on my laptop at home I think? Seeing as it's you, I'll try and post it later if no one else has.  :-*