My point is it’s going in anyway. So the 0.2 becomes a 0.9 and it appears we’ve created more. When we really haven’t. Surely that’s a flaw in the stats. If sterling isn’t there they don’t score so surely that’s different?
It's a flaw in using them for a single match, yes. You don't particularly need xG to say that we had a few decent matches in Saturday's match.
They are, however, good for looking at longer term trends because then these flaws average out. The cases where the xG was under-estimated are basically counteracted by the cases where the xG was over-estimated.
After 7 games, you're probably getting close to the point when you can do that.
We're probably underperforming a little at the moment, relative to what you would 'expect' on historical data.
There have been games when you'd expect us to, on average, have scored a goal - Crystal Palace, Villa, Sheffield United - and the bounces just haven't gone our way. That's inherent with the kind of shots we've been taking though (headers and shots from outside the box).
There will be games when we do get that rub of the green and it'll balance out. Right now though, we're just a midtable side playing midtable football getting a little unlucky but not really deserving better.