October 22, 2019, 10:36:38 AM

Author Topic: Silva’s Playbook  (Read 128959 times)

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September 30, 2019, 05:32:25 PM
Reply #285
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brap2

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Think he's got something like 3 points more than us since he arrived.

A good, adaptable coach with a very good young squad, will blow us away home and away this year I think.

But still a bullshit artist who the players will turn on given enough time.

Them getting rimmed is annoying much like it was with wolves last year, feels very much like it should be us, could be us, but never is no matter what we spend. Extremely frustrating.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


September 30, 2019, 11:30:59 PM
Reply #286
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Leicester xg numbers not too dissimilar to ours so far this season. Played harder games to be fair.

We put up a greater xg v city than they did v 10 man Newcastle tho, I will say that.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

September 30, 2019, 11:42:33 PM
Reply #287
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brap2

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Massive difference between managers I rate, and managers I’d want here though.

Chris wilder for example. What’s he’s done over the last couple of years is incredible, but he’d be out of his depth here.

Eddie Howe is the same, Dean Smith, Farme as well.

There’s two managers though that I rate who would do well here and not be out of their depth. Santo, and the fella at Southampton (not even attempting to spell his name)

Interested to see how potter does at Brighton too.

I'd love to see wilder here.

It'd be a really hard job getting buy in from fans player media and all that but the footy he plays with some of those cloggers is nothing short of fantastic.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


September 30, 2019, 11:46:58 PM
Reply #288
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brap2

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Aren’t West Ham’s absolutely dreadful?

Not sure you know. I think they've been giving up a lot, but on the front foot they've looked alright to me with a good mix of players. Full back and midfield still ropey imo.

I do know fabianski has been the most over performing goalie in the league for about 12 months tho, and he's just been ruled out for the next 2 months. Be very disappointed if we don't batter them frankly.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

September 30, 2019, 11:51:26 PM
Reply #289
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brap2

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Big mick on the overlap though? You’d need counselling after that.

Seriously, it would be very interesting to see what he could do at a higher level.

He’s spent the last few years notching up 100 points totals and consistently over performing with one of the worst budgets in the leagues, whilst playing a completely innovative, exciting way of playing.

Does seem to suggest he’s a lot better than the level he’s been at for the last few years, but it’s a massive fucking step to manage Everton.   



I'd expect him to come up with something else tbh, which is what a good coach should do!

Would be really interesting seeing him with genuine genuine talent because he can clearly coach a very attractive style of football.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 01, 2019, 03:26:50 AM
Reply #290
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brap2

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whats an xg brap?
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A number between 0 and 1 that tell you how likely someone would generally score a goal based on historic shots of a similar type.

During the course of a game your tally builds as you take each chance. Eg if you take 5 shots with a 20% chance, typically you might get 1. If you get a header on the line like DCL - that's about 80%+ or 0.80 on its own!

In terms of team performance you can look at xg created v xg conceded, the best sides will create a lot of likely chances while denying the opposition many.

It's not perfect but it tends to broadly line up with how teams are doing across the course of a year, same for goalscorers.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


October 01, 2019, 03:45:01 AM
Reply #291
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brap2

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It’s a bit of a daft stat. If DCL doesn’t touch the ball it’s maybe .2 but because he does it’s .95

When does the chance start. What about that crazy goal Messi scored against getefe all them years ago. Is it 0.005 on the half way line or is it .5 when he finally shoots

The depth of your misunderstanding is maybe literally too great for me to begin to broach this to be honest with you. I apologise if that sounds bad I don't mean it to be mean it's just it would maybe need someone with more in depth knowledge than me.

It's not perfect certainly, but...

Re your DCL thing : sure. And if sterling isn't there to Bury the third then its 0 but he is. What's your point?

The chance measures the shot, any dribbles or saucy bits of control or movement are not measured here. We're not measuring that. There are other metrics for that, this isn't it.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 01, 2019, 05:28:52 AM
Reply #292
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brap2

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My point is it’s going in anyway. So the 0.2 becomes a 0.9 and it appears we’ve created more. When we really haven’t. Surely that’s a flaw in the stats. If sterling isn’t there they don’t score so surely that’s different?


You're not massively wrong but having enough pressure on a team that you have a striker unmarked in the middle of the goal meaning he converts an 80% chance tells part of the story frankly. We had enough pressure on city to create an 80% chance of bagging a goal. Its not skewed its literally what happened. In isolation it feels funny but tbh, it just is what happened.

And yes that was going in but on many many other occasions, more often than not, it's saved or blocked or cleared or misses or hits the woodwork.

If you have a striker on hand to get it across the line rather than it getting cleared e.g v Liverpool last year, then the story is different.

Anyway it isn't perfect and you probably could debate that, there's lots of odd anomalies as there probably is in most human data. E. G. Burnley tend to concede high xg chances but teams fail to convert them due to how he organises his defence, or how when a player is hot, he's just hot. He's in the zone and finishing above his xg, and there's nothing to explain it beyond stuff is going in better than you could mathematically predict.

but anyway the fact remains that over the course of the year it does generally bear out in the league table, and helps to provide an extra level of nuance to your reading of the table beyond points, games, goals.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 05:36:33 AM by brap2 »
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 01, 2019, 03:29:10 PM
Reply #293
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brap2

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It's a flaw in using them for a single match, yes. You don't particularly need xG to say that we had a few decent matches in Saturday's match.

They are, however, good for looking at longer term trends because then these flaws average out. The cases where the xG was under-estimated are basically counteracted by the cases where the xG was over-estimated.

After 7 games, you're probably getting close to the point when you can do that.

We're probably underperforming a little at the moment, relative to what you would 'expect' on historical data.

There have been games when you'd expect us to, on average, have scored a goal - Crystal Palace, Villa, Sheffield United - and the bounces just haven't gone our way. That's inherent with the kind of shots we've been taking though (headers and shots from outside the box).

There will be games when we do get that rub of the green and it'll balance out. Right now though, we're just a midtable side playing midtable football getting a little unlucky but not really deserving better.

Exactly.

I'd expect Leicester to drop a bit and us to pick up a bit and both meet around 8th.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 01, 2019, 06:16:42 PM
Reply #294
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brap2

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I see we're going down the xg hole again.

I get the stats will give a better overall impression but they don't, or correct me if I am wrong, give you the information that an eye test will, which is that we are incredibly boring and predictable to watch. We know what the players are going to do, the opposition know what we are going to do and the xg will just give you result of those individual battles i.e Digne/Bernard or Coleman/Richarlison on the overlap getting the better of their full backs and creating, if not directly, the passage of play that gives us our (half) chances.

This is my issue with Silva. It's not really an enjoyable experience watching us play football.

 

No hole to go down, just saying..thehre slightly above were slightly below.

They are better than us like but I think if we got ourselves sorted we'd be up there oirsbes, especially considering the games we've had.

Re : boring / predictability to watch etc. Not really sure what the question is, but I imagine if the team starts racking up lots and lots of high quality chances we will enjoy it more and that will show in the stats.

Apologies I know that's not why a lot of us are here but it was pertinent and probably will remain so whenever we discuss performance to be honest.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 01, 2019, 06:18:03 PM
Reply #295
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brap2

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Ps Sigurdsson has created 9 chances from open play apparently, the rest from corners and fks.

Also chances created is not a great stat but still it seems to broadly = creative players there to be fair.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 02, 2019, 05:06:50 PM
Reply #296
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brap2

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Id like to see

             Pickford
Sidibe  Keane Mina  Digne
       Gomes Gbamin
 Richarlison  Iwobi  Bernard
               Kean

I like the look of this but I think DCL will be playing. Hit a bit of form and we will need his height in the box.

Edit also aren't Gomes and Gbamin out still?
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 08:03:07 PM by brap2 »
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 02, 2019, 09:28:06 PM
Reply #297
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brap2

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If he finds a way to breakdown stubborn sides and to control games better then I'd be very confident.

I'm just not sure if he can do either of those things.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 06, 2019, 12:05:19 AM
Reply #298
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brap2

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100% see us going with Moyes to the end of the season.

I'd be done with us at that point.

I would be at refusing to come down from the roof of finch farm levels of raving madness.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

October 06, 2019, 02:26:19 AM
Reply #299
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brap2

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Marcelino, Hutter, Todesco, Gallardo, Arteta, Potters name will be in the hat for similar sized jobs at the end of the year after carrying on his good work at Brighton.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.