September 20, 2019, 08:46:12 AM

Author Topic: Real after Pickford  (Read 4988 times)

Offline brap2

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Re: Real after Pickford
« on: January 07, 2019, 01:57:38 PM »

 More the quality of the shot opportunity afforded the opposition. I imagine itís incredibly hard to asses but put it this way; If 2 keepers face 100 shots each but keeper Aís shots are all from 5 yards wilts keeper Bís are from 20 then the stats are going to be skewed because of the relative ease of scoring from 5 yards as opposed to 20.

Ya get me, blud?

I do get you, but that is exactly the sort of thing that xg measures.

Some of these models will even go down to post-shot even - level of pressure on the ball, right or wrong foot, etc.

However, this model is purely distance / angle, so itís not just a case of a shot on target = a goal he should have conceded, it is a metric for shots that would usually be saved over the course of the season vs shots that generally would go in over the course of the season.

Hereís a short explanation on his xg model : https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/a-shooting-model-an-expglanation-and-application/

Does anything in particular stand out to you as untrue, or not matching your eye?

Thereís nothing to be worried about in this table I donít think, heís been below par this season, and weíve been allowing too many shots against him from too good a position through the year.

If he continues that over a few years, or gets worse, or we reduce the xg against him but he continues to concede from soft areas - we can respond accordingly.
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