December 10, 2018, 03:28:20 PM

Author Topic: Silva’s Playbook  (Read 27434 times)

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November 19, 2018, 04:19:00 AM
Reply #555
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Cassius

NSNO Subscriber
Saw this posted earlier about the season so far.

Despite all the improvements compared to last year, the stats across the season as a whole suggest that we’re very much middle of the pack if you look at expected goals for and against.

It’s nice to have a good feeling around here again but we’ve still a ways to go yet.

I'm not massively acquainted with XG so I might be massively off with this post.

From my point of view, teams will score goals every season that wouldn't normally be 'expected'. They may also save certain goals through unexpected amazing defending. Not always the case for us, but you know what I mean.

These should still be accounted for in any statistical model. Perhaps XG does account for them and I just don't know the details. Or maybe that's the actual league table, which accounts for that scenario.

Either way, Silva has given the team confidence, which has resulted in play and attempts on goal that may be recorded against expectations. These may not have been attempted by the players under previous regimes.


November 19, 2018, 04:21:24 AM
Reply #556
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BlueNoseMike


Keep scrolling.

But basically yeah!

Worth bearing in mind our numbers are middle of the pack yes, but have been getting better!

Ah yeah. True, you've got to think the likes of Bournemouth and Watford will dip though

November 19, 2018, 04:23:26 AM
Reply #557
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brap2

NSNO Subscriber
I'm not massively acquainted with XG so I might be massively off with this post.

From my point of view, teams will score goals every season that wouldn't normally be 'expected'. They may also save certain goals through unexpected amazing defending. Not always the case for us, but you know what I mean.

These should still be accounted for in any statistical model. Perhaps XG does account for them and I just don't know the details. Or maybe that's the actual league table, which accounts for that scenario.

Either way, Silva has given the team confidence, which has resulted in play and attempts on goal that may be recorded against expectations. These may not have been attempted by the players under previous regimes.

Yes all teams will sometimes score goals they ‘shouldn't’ and also miss horrendous sitters - but everyone is in the same boat in that repspect so it doesn’t really matter.

It just takes thousands and thousands of shots historically and assigns touch points to them, then when you take a shot it lines it up against those touch points and says right out of 10 times (or whatever) how many of these have historically usually been a goal?

It stands to reason the best sides create the best chances and the worst sides allow the most dangerous chances against them, but xg is just a way quantifying your performance by quality of chance, and it’s a pretty good one on my opinion.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


November 19, 2018, 06:21:35 AM
Reply #558
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Glory


I would be interested to see where we sit in such a metric over the last month or so ratger than the entire season.

It will possibly be the same but I think it's quite obvious that a gameplan is really starting to influence how the side plays.

November 19, 2018, 09:06:40 AM
Reply #559
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stirlingblue


I would be interested to see where we sit in such a metric over the last month or so ratger than the entire season.

It will possibly be the same but I think it's quite obvious that a gameplan is really starting to influence how the side plays.

I’ve not seen anything for just the more recent games but if you think about watching us we do tend to give away some big chances against us every game so I expected the xGA to be bad.

The surprise for me initially was the xG as I felt like we’ve been playing well but there has been a few games where I’ve felt like we played well but when you look back at it we’ve not had any clear scoring opportunities.

Even if we stay where we are on that chart I’d expect us to finish 7th as xG doesn’t take into account the quality of the players getting the chances, which is where we’ll do better than the likes of Watford or Wolves.

November 19, 2018, 01:59:22 PM
Reply #560
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brap2

NSNO Subscriber
I’ve not seen anything for just the more recent games but if you think about watching us we do tend to give away some big chances against us every game so I expected the xGA to be bad.

The surprise for me initially was the xG as I felt like we’ve been playing well but there has been a few games where I’ve felt like we played well but when you look back at it we’ve not had any clear scoring opportunities.

Even if we stay where we are on that chart I’d expect us to finish 7th as xG doesn’t take into account the quality of the players getting the chances, which is where we’ll do better than the likes of Watford or Wolves.

Yeah we’ve been improving. About 10 pages / a month or two ago the Ram posted that we were about 15th in the xg league.

Our numbers are now reflecting our performances and results, which is positive.

There’s a nice form of graph, think it’s maybe called an xg plot which marks your XG/Xga across a timeline, and marks where manager changes occur.

I’ve been waiting for an update from the account that makes them but basically Koeman/Unsworth/Allardyce - there wasn’t much in it. A slight dip in chances conceded with Allardyce, but results improved quicker than performances. Would be interesting to see the plot with the first few moths of marco’s reign.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


November 19, 2018, 02:14:24 PM
Reply #561
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Cereal Killer


What the fuck did people do with their time before Xg and other stats were invented?!

We're playing better football than last year, can't we leave it at that?  :)

November 20, 2018, 12:28:04 AM
Reply #562
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stirlingblue


What the fuck did people do with their time before Xg and other stats were invented?!

We're playing better football than last year, can't we leave it at that?  :)

International breaks, anything is fair game!

November 20, 2018, 02:27:27 AM
Reply #563
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eyesalwaysblue


What the fuck did people do with their time before Xg and other stats were invented?!

We're playing better football than last year, can't we leave it at that?  :)
If we were playing twice as good a football as last year at the beginning of this season and playing one and a half times better than that the last 4 games, how many sweeties each should we have after the next game?
I still despise Clive Thomas..

November 20, 2018, 02:45:04 AM
Reply #564
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brap2

NSNO Subscriber
Aye don’t worry about it lads
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

November 20, 2018, 03:11:36 AM
Reply #565
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Cereal Killer


If we were playing twice as good a football as last year at the beginning of this season and playing one and a half times better than that the last 4 games, how many sweeties each should we have after the next game?

Moyes out??

November 20, 2018, 03:14:49 AM
Reply #566
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bluenuck


I'm not massively acquainted with XG so I might be massively off with this post.

From my point of view, teams will score goals every season that wouldn't normally be 'expected'. They may also save certain goals through unexpected amazing defending. Not always the case for us, but you know what I mean.

These should still be accounted for in any statistical model. Perhaps XG does account for them and I just don't know the details. Or maybe that's the actual league table, which accounts for that scenario.

Either way, Silva has given the team confidence, which has resulted in play and attempts on goal that may be recorded against expectations. These may not have been attempted by the players under previous regimes.

There's gaping holes in a lot of these new analytical stats. Everyone wants to be the new Bill James in their respective sports so bad that their not seeing these holes.



November 20, 2018, 11:40:04 PM
Reply #567
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Bluedylan


Jeff: That's not the way to win.
Kathie: Is there a way to win?
Jeff: There's a way to lose more slowly.

November 21, 2018, 12:30:36 AM
Reply #568
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blue1948


https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/nov/20/premier-league-numbers-run-furthest-missed-most-chances-12-games-statistics
Not a single mention for the Blues ,OK they were shown in the graphs and charts but never named .Is that because we don't merit a mention or that we are just mid table and insignificant ? Or is it some other reason?

November 21, 2018, 12:44:39 AM
Reply #569
Online

brap2

NSNO Subscriber
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.