July 21, 2019, 11:52:28 PM

Author Topic: Real after Pickford  (Read 4634 times)

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January 05, 2019, 08:29:01 PM
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brap2

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According to @footballfactman on twitter heís about 16th in the shot stopper rankings this year.

https://twitter.com/footballfactman/status/1078611243718582272?s=21
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


January 06, 2019, 05:16:41 AM
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brap2

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Huge lack of context here though. This is only relevant when the type of shots/chances afforded to the opposition are taken into account.


What kind of thing would you like taken into account?

I imagine it doesnít take into account things like minute of the 90 or game state but I canít see how that makes a functional difference.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

January 07, 2019, 01:57:38 PM
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brap2

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 More the quality of the shot opportunity afforded the opposition. I imagine itís incredibly hard to asses but put it this way; If 2 keepers face 100 shots each but keeper Aís shots are all from 5 yards wilts keeper Bís are from 20 then the stats are going to be skewed because of the relative ease of scoring from 5 yards as opposed to 20.

Ya get me, blud?

I do get you, but that is exactly the sort of thing that xg measures.

Some of these models will even go down to post-shot even - level of pressure on the ball, right or wrong foot, etc.

However, this model is purely distance / angle, so itís not just a case of a shot on target = a goal he should have conceded, it is a metric for shots that would usually be saved over the course of the season vs shots that generally would go in over the course of the season.

Hereís a short explanation on his xg model : https://differentgame.wordpress.com/2014/05/19/a-shooting-model-an-expglanation-and-application/

Does anything in particular stand out to you as untrue, or not matching your eye?

Thereís nothing to be worried about in this table I donít think, heís been below par this season, and weíve been allowing too many shots against him from too good a position through the year.

If he continues that over a few years, or gets worse, or we reduce the xg against him but he continues to concede from soft areas - we can respond accordingly.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.


January 07, 2019, 02:00:13 PM
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brap2

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Think that table is based on that sort of thing.

Heís let in two more goals than he ďshouldĒ have done.

Whereas Alisson has let in 7 fewer (eg saving Gomesí header, Iíd imagine).

If I remember correctly Gomes header was about 0.60 xg.

So ~60% of the time that goes in. Scary to think he actually has to save another one for that to count as 1.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.

January 07, 2019, 03:19:02 PM
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brap2

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I'd raise the point, because these things are never as black and white as the stats make out. If they were why would we even bother watching the games. They add to the sport, but it seems that they're quickly becoming the sport.

It's a moot point anyway, as @GLewis and @brap2 have explained.

Can understand the reticence. Iíve mentioned I struggle with this myself. A burgeoning interest in that side of the game with the knowledge that modern, well-run clubs are taking this stuff seriously makes it really hard to get away from - even if sometimes itís telling you stuff you donít want to see or is a bit of a spoilsport.

For example the writer of the above table / article, really does not want silva at Everton, doesnít rate him and considers his signing a big mistake.

Iím trying to ignore the fact heís been right about basically everything since I started following his work, and hold on to my silva in a multi year project is different to recent years prem silva POV, but itís hard.
I knew that someday I was going to die, and I knew that before I died, two things would happen to me. That number one; I would regret my entire life, and number two; that I would want to live my life over again.