It’s a spectrum from Europa League qualification to avoiding relegation somewhat comfortably.
I think where we land on the spectrum depends on two things:
1. The intent we play with. If Moyes emboldens us to play more on the deck, I see a lot of potential for KDH and Hackney to work wide overloads with the wingers and fullbacks. Those triangles have been hallmarks of Moyes’ best footballing teams. If it’s a steady dose of conservatism and lumps into the channel, I see us having enough to stay out of a relegation battle but being somewhat uninspiring like last year.
2. Development of younger players we bought last summer. If even two of Barry/Dibling/Aznou/George/Röhl gain a bit of confidence and grow into their roles in the team, we could end up looking a lot better despite not really doing much in the market this summer. I think if you view the performances of those players as a fixed state, what you’ve already seen is basically what you get, I understand the pessimism. If you think those players looked fairly good under the hood when we bought them and are likely to show even more with a season (or half-season) at Everton under the belts, things don’t look quite as dire despite the lack of action so far.
Lowered expectations are definitely a factor here. We’ve gone from having an expensive squad with no sellable assets and no way of putting a coherent team on the pitch under Moshiri to having a squad that can actually play together with a bunch of young players that can get better and a few legitimate assets that can be cashed in to keep building when needed (Ndiaye and Garner, in particular).
I don’t mind us continuing to focus on young players with big future potential and not pushing more chips in on Moyes, who can’t be trusted to be brave or proactive even when it’s obviously needed. I like our current position.
If we end up at the top end of the spectrum (Europa berth), we can use that to sell the club to a caliber of player we haven’t been able to tempt this summer or last. If we end up at the bottom end, we have a clean break with Moyes, cash in Ndiaye or Garner or both, and bring in someone more exciting and progressive to manage the younger crop we’ve cultivated.
Having said all of that, if anyone thinks the young players we’ve signed are varying shades of not good enough / never going to be good enough, then fair fucks, you’re entitled to your pessimism.
