777Kidnappings wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:22 am
Phillyt wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:07 am
blueToffee wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2023 4:10 am
Not helpful to add, but just vacillating between anger and sadness.
Looking at the league table from the half way point of last year, we were on 15pts at that stage, weirdly we were on 13pts after 12 games too (only a point less than we were before today). So we need 11 pts from the next 7 games to reach even that (not great) level considering how we scraped over the line. That's a tough ask.
The seven games in question are:
Man United (h)
Forest (a)
Newcastle (h)
Chelsea (h)
Burnley (a)
Tottenham (a)
Man City (h)
Not many easy games there, the last two are almost write offs. Those are some pretty difficult fixtures really. Hard to say with big confidence we're getting 11 pts from that lot, we'd have to go on an unbelievable run. The likelihood would remain under or around 10 by the halfway point would be pretty high. In which case the only way we survive is the teams around us are dropping a similar amount of points.
I would add, on balance looking through Burnley, Sheffield Utd and Luton's fixtures that they also have some of the bigger teams to play still. So really the bar is just trying to stay in touch with those 3 by the halfway point to start with.
I mentioned this above but another, more positive way of looking at this is that over the rest of the season we need to win just one more game than Burnley, Luton and sheff Utd. Can you really see that not happening? This is the baseline or worst case scenario. If we appeal it can only go one way.
We should be okay but "can you really see that not happening" is overstating our chances a lot. We are currently have about a 30% chance of relegation. Looking at the games coming up we could quite easily be 5 or 6 points from safety in 6 games time.
Honestly I feel a bit done now. A bit sad. Very much like I've felt for the last 2 years plus. Its just never ending problems and relegation battles. It just feels like we never escape it even when it looked like this season we finally might. Was enjoying everton again. Not having to worry about us all the time. Not having to worry about everyone down the bottom losing every game just to give us a chance. Now back to thinking about it all the bloody time. How we will probably have to get something against utd not to be bottom. How we might have to win just to stay within a win of 4th bottom. We are gonna have to do it as fans but I really didn't want another season like this.. I loved everton being the distraction rather than the thing I needed distracting from
A little bit of positivity. The United team that we are facing next Sunday is far from unbeatable.
I was posed a question last week that I genuinely couldn't answer, "Name me 5 players from the current Utd aquad, that you would take right now to significantly improve your first team". Honestly, I was really struggling with that. I'm not saying that they have no decent players, more that they are not a particularly coherent unit as a team. In years gone by, you would probably have struggled to come up with 5 players that you wouldn't take. I don't think that Onana, for instance, has looked like an upgrade for De Gea. Fernandes is decemt, but not really a great. Casemiro was supposed to come in and completely revolutinise their midfield, but he's been more of a liability. Rashford is decent, but seems to be struggling at present. Harry Maguire? Varane? Even Luke Shaw has looked a little off the boil. They're currently persisting with Rasmus Hojlund up front, who is undoubtedly talented, but currently looks like he's drowning in the Premier League.
So, they are a team that we are CAPABLE of beating as long as we turn up, get stuck in and perform.
COYB!