Relegation
Re: Relegation
Just looked at the table and Luton have won 6 games all season... If we didn't win another point they'd need to win 3 of their last 4... That's 50% of the entire wins they've achieved all season.
Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.
I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.
Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.
I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.
Re: Relegation
How many had we won all season/how many at home had we won all season before we won 3 of the last 4?AjaxAndy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:28 pm Just looked at the table and Luton have won 6 games all season... If we didn't win another point they'd need to win 3 of their last 4... That's 50% of the entire wins they've achieved all season.
Forest would need 2 wins and 2 draws, or 3 wins.
I know we all are pretty confident of being safe now, but shows just how comfortable we really are.
Re: Relegation
Apart from Brighton, not sure there's been a side more impacted by injuries over the last few months than Luton. Adebayo coming back could make a huge difference in the run-in for them.
We're safe as far as I'm concerned.
We're safe as far as I'm concerned.
Re: Relegation
Yeah but I think the chances of either Forest or Luton winning 3 out of 4 games is about as low as you can get. We did go on a very bad run but we'd had a good one prior to that showing we are capable.
Although Forest need 2 wins and 2 draws to overhaul us (and us not pick up any points) their next game is Man City, so again really like Luton they need to win 3 games to even have a chance of passing us as they won't get a sniff against City.
To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one.
Re: Relegation
The chances based on that we have a 0.7% chance of religation is actually 142 to 1 but I love your optimism
Re: Relegation
Yeah, it's pretty academic like.
But Luton scraping a win at Wolves and us being shit at home against Brentford is definitely more likely than 10%.
Then Luton beating us isn't exactly a lottery win of a likelihood.
Then they're only 2 points behind us.
Granted, Forest aren't likely to beat City next up.
But I would very much like to get to mathematical certainty as soon as possible. (Be great to get to 40+ points after the deduction to be honest, that might be a stretch too far though)
But Luton scraping a win at Wolves and us being shit at home against Brentford is definitely more likely than 10%.
Then Luton beating us isn't exactly a lottery win of a likelihood.
Then they're only 2 points behind us.
Granted, Forest aren't likely to beat City next up.
But I would very much like to get to mathematical certainty as soon as possible. (Be great to get to 40+ points after the deduction to be honest, that might be a stretch too far though)
Re: Relegation
Would 100% have Adebayo here you know. Think he'd fit a Dyche team and better than Beto.
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Paddockoldie
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Re: Relegation
And still they came.....AjaxAndy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:15 pm Yeah but I think the chances of either Forest or Luton winning 3 out of 4 games is about as low as you can get. We did go on a very bad run but we'd had a good one prior to that showing we are capable.
Although Forest need 2 wins and 2 draws to overhaul us (and us not pick up any points) their next game is Man City, so again really like Luton they need to win 3 games to even have a chance of passing us as they won't get a sniff against City.
To go down that'd mean Luton and Forest need to win 6 games between them from 8 fixtures. The chances of us going down are about a billion to one they say.
Duh duh duuuuuuuh
Re: Relegation
It's not even good odds imo... The chances of BOTH Luton and Forest over taking us are soooo small that even at 1000/1 it'd be a pretty rubbish betPaddockoldie wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2024 5:09 am Banging a score on that... life's a double edged sword, but money wins
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CannockPricey
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Re: Relegation
I think we'll be fine but a Burnley win at Old Trafford which isn't the most outrageous suggestion given some of United's performances this season might make the Forest v Luton equation a bit more complex.
If Burnley can be within a couple of points going to the last day, they are at home to Forest which with Forest in this slightly weird meltdown, they would have a very decent chance of winning.
If Burnley can be within a couple of points going to the last day, they are at home to Forest which with Forest in this slightly weird meltdown, they would have a very decent chance of winning.
Re: Relegation
We aren’t mathematically safe but we aren’t going down. You may as well lock the thread.
It’s between Forest, Luton and Burnley now.
It’s between Forest, Luton and Burnley now.