Valid points... agree recruitment would have to be spot on.Toddacelli wrote: ↑Fri Jan 02, 2026 6:32 pm What’s the stats on this? Not being argumentative - genuinely interested.
For teams who have made European football, what has been the impact to their league position compared to the season before?
Is there a trend?
Also, is there some way to see what type of signings they make over the next few years and if their position improves over the next few years after the initial drop (if there is one).
I would suspect that even if there is a couple of positions drop that same season, that recruitment might show more experienced European players being signed (experienced playing European football, not experienced European footballers), which might even improve league position over the next few years. Not always - but if done well.
I just can’t help but think of some of the players we’ve been linked to and lost out to other teams. Players who have picked the likes of Forest, Leeds and Palace over us.
But do we have data that says I’m full of shit?
Some data: as at 2025/26, ."...the average decline in league performance over the last decade of non-big-six teams making an appearance in Europe is nine points." Opta Analyst
I was thinking along the lines of established European regulars, Man Utd and Spurs; each played 60 games in 24/25 and their league form suffered severely, both finished 10 places lower than their average league position over the past 5 surrounding seasons. Might be coincidental as other obvious factors. Spurs chose to favour the cup, and also had an injury crisis. Man Utd had managerial issues.
They've both more resources and considerably deeper squads than us though, and I presume most of our fans wouldn't be happy treating the Cups and Europe with little respect by mainly playing kids. We've seen those complaints put forward before, this season vs Wolves for one.
That, and how much transfer budget do we have to play with in our rebuild, (maybe the rivers of revenue, BMD gold, are rolling in?) After losing a dozen first teamers last summer, where can we really expect to be at. Floating too close to the PSR edge would be a big mistake for us especially.
I hope this doesnt read like I dont want Europe, but part of me thinks I'd rather we didnt take one step forward if the risk/result is two steps back.
A few cautionary tales from Opta Analyst below...
With opportunity comes risk. One of the difficulties teams encounter when they try to balance European and domestic commitments is juggling their squads to compete on multiple fronts. And history suggests this usually results in a significant drop-off in a club’s league results.
The ‘big six’ traditionally play in Europe every season and typically have the resources and squad depth to cope with the busy schedule, but other clubs are rarely as well-equipped.
In fact, non-big-six teams who qualify for Europe win around nine points fewer in the league in the campaign immediately following qualification.
Only three non-big-six clubs have managed back-to-back European qualifications over the past decade, and just two improved their league points tally in that second campaign.
...
After qualifying for the 2016-17 Champions League as Premier League winners, Leicester won their group and made it to the quarter-finals, where they were knocked out by Atlético Madrid. But the distractions of Europe had a severe knock-on effect in the league, and the Foxes won just 44 points – a fall of 37 compared to their previous campaign.
...
After navigating the qualifying rounds in 2017/18 Everton struggled in the group stage and were eliminated, while in the league their form was patchy and they ended the season with 12 fewer points, albeit finishing only one position lower.
...but the surprise package of the [2017/18] season was Burnley, who finished seventh under Sean Dyche.
It wasn’t exactly a vintage campaign in general though as the Clarets achieved that position with just 54 points – the lowest total needed to finish seventh since 2008-09.
The following campaign would have stretched the club’s resources anyway, but they faltered at the qualifying stage in Europe, losing to Olympiakos.
Even without the regular distraction of midweek football, Burnley finished 15th with just 40 points.
...
Leicester City forced their way back into European competition by finishing fifth in 2019-20. Despite exiting the Europa League the following campaign at the last-32 stage, they had a very good season domestically, finishing fifth again with four more points than in 2019-20. They also lifted the FA Cup to qualify for Europe for a second season in a row.
Their following European campaign came with mixed results. They were eliminated from the group stage of the Europa League but then dropped into the Conference League, where they made the semi-final.
However, their European exertions came with a 14-point drop-off in the league and the financial implications of not being in Europe hastened a decline that continued as the club were relegated in 2022-23.
...
In 2020-21, David Moyes guided West Ham to sixth place and a record points haul of 65 in the Premier League.
The Hammers did perform worse in 2021-22, but despite earning seven points fewer, they finished seventh again and qualified for Europe.
In 2022-23, West Ham won the Europa Conference League to secure European football for a third consecutive season, but paid the price in the league as they only picked up 40 points and finished 14th. Of course, they had lost their captain and best player, Declan Rice, that summer.
