Dyche - HE'S GONE

[Cereal Killer]

It’s almost as if Forest are owned by a major criminal laundering proceeds from crimes through the club…

[blueToffee]

Yeah, too simplistic.

We are anemic in attack with a good defense.

They are middling in attack with an excellent defense.

Their finishing hasn’t even been that great (about +2 compared to expectation). Just think they’re having tremendous “luck” winning close matches. They could ride this all year or regress to the mean a bit, you never know.

Absolutely horrifying how bad our underlying numbers are in attack. I know Dyche is comfortable with his sides creating fewer chances overall since he tends to have ways of engineering one or two big chances in those limited opportunities but if we were anything like a middling attacking team, we’d be feeling very comfortable right now.

Fair enough.

I was looking at stats below, not drastically different but they don't tell the whole story though.


Everton (average over season)

xG For / Match
1.25
xG Against / Match
1.41
Shots Taken / Match
9.53
Shots Conversion Rate
10%
Possession AVG
40%

Nottingham Forest (average over season)
xG For / Match
1.46
xG Against / Match
1.44
Shots Taken / Match
11.2
Shots Conversion Rate
13%
Possession AVG
41%

Forest have scored 7 more and conceded 2 less so far.

DCL is currently 3rd in the table of "Big chances missed" with 9.

[kramer]

Fair enough.

I was looking at stats below, not drastically different but they don't tell the whole story though.


Everton (average over season)

xG For / Match
1.25
xG Against / Match
1.41
Shots Taken / Match
9.53
Shots Conversion Rate
10%
Possession AVG
40%

Nottingham Forest (average over season)
xG For / Match
1.46
xG Against / Match
1.44
Shots Taken / Match
11.2
Shots Conversion Rate
13%
Possession AVG
41%

Forest have scored 7 more and conceded 2 less so far.

DCL is currently 3rd in the table of "Big chances missed" with 9.

Where’s this from?

The funny thing about xG models is they all differ a bit in terms of inputs.

FBRef has their defense considerably better than ours with an extra game played.

[blueToffee]

Where’s this from?

The funny thing about xG models is they all differ a bit in terms of inputs.

FBRef has their defense considerably better than ours with an extra game played.

Oh, I didn't know that but that makes sense. The above was from Footystats.org no idea how reliable or not they are, it was just a random google as I was wondering what the differences were.

[74Blue]

Would you have Chris wood over Dom?

Yes, in a heartbeat. Chris Wood is an absolute fucking yard dog, but he at least does the basic things that strikers are expected to do. DCL is sound in the air and holds the ball up well, but ultimately, a.striker is judged on how many times.he puts the ball in the onion bag, and DCL just doesn't do it enough, I'm afraid.

[Kerryblueboy]

They also beat us to the £45m signing of Gibbs-White. We couldn’t compete and so went for McNeil.

Mangala is a Forest cast-off and is one of our better players.

Elanga, MGW, CHO could all play for a bigger club than Forest or have the chance to get back to top clubs. McNeil, Harrison, even Ndiaye, won’t.

Forest have outspent us by about £300m since they came up.

It’s not all about tactics and because Patto can’t get a run in the team.

Your last line is exactly what I would expect from a dyche fan not all about tactics and throw a dig at a player who hasn’t been used properly by the dinosaur

[Cods]

What’s the difference between us and Forest this season? Too simplistic to say better finishing?

Better players, apart from maybe Branthwaite, Pickford and Gana, not sure we'd have more than 3 players in a combined 11. This season they've gelled, and Wood can't stop scoring (largely through more opportunities, but his conversion rate is still one of the best in Europe, and ours have some of the worst).

Next season we'll likely be where Forest were last season.
Whether we have hundreds of millions to spend on half a squad is yet to be seen.

[Bornblue88]

Your last line is exactly what I would expect from a dyche fan not all about tactics and throw a dig at a player who hasn’t been used properly by the dinosaur

What about the rest of the post? You know, all those valid points that point to why this group can’t put much better performances in regardless of manager. No never mind, our saviour Nathan Patterson is being overlooked because Dyche hates winning games

[superpull]

Forest gambled and it's paid off.

Came up, ignored the rules and bought more players than could gel in one year.

Rode their luck, took their punishment and scraped through.

This year they were able to make targeted acquisitions as opposed to wholesale changes, allowed their squad to fully bed in and have brought in a manager that is respected and has success at this level.

[Bluedylan1]

All Forest's progress is derived directly from blood money, so there's nothing to be envious of there.

[brap2]

Give me Ola Aina, MGW, Sangare, CHO and Elanga

[Juanito]

All this makes me think new, pacey right winger is an absolute imperative on the 1st January.

[Cereal Killer]

We won’t be signing anyone decent for any money unless we sell… PSR still applies even with new owners

[Bluebridge]

We won’t be signing anyone decent for any money unless we sell… PSR still applies even with new owners

I’m certain our spending only stopped in the summer cos TFG pulled out and would have been bankrolling it, think we had some more wiggle room.

[kramer]

Give me Ola Aina, MGW, Sangare, CHO and Elanga

We definitely would have signed some of these if we weren’t broke/restricted by FFP.