The NSNO Everton Forums

Agree with your points, and there will always be outliers particularly given constants in particular variables (manager, style etc) but I just can't see how they explain the magnitude of the variance to a set of values.

You would also expect to see some regression to the mean, except for the points we've raised earlier.

For example, yes every once in a while we'll get rain when it's forecast to be sunny, yet getting thunderstorms and flooding is another thing altogether.

And to be totally flippant, 'Everton-that' can surely only explain so much.

I think blaming dyche for our shortfall in XG is just another way of saying you don't like how we play. Past the argument he signed some of the players who can't finish it's not on him or any manager. The scrappy chances argument I think just shows where we are unlucky rather than poor finishing

Interesting stats from the EPL's own statisticians:

In less than 1/3rd of our games (10 of 31 games) was our Goals scored better than our Expected Goals.
- of those we Won 7, Drew 2 and Lost 1! When we've been clinical or luckier than average, even if only marginally, we've done very well.
- 2/3rds of our total points (deductions excluded) came from those 10 games (Wins against Brentford, Chelsea, Hammers, Palace, Forest, Newcastle, Burnley, and two draws against Brighton).

We're 4th on the 'Hitting the woodwork' leaderboard (15 times!). Daylight 5th.
Yet we're 11th for Total Shots, and 13th for Shots On Target. Nothing surprising, and about expected given points tally (deductions excluded).

I've got nothing official for 'Keepers having a blinder against us' but I recall two games where their keeper was by far the best (or luckiest) player on the pitch by some distance.

We're 2nd in the league for penalties conceded. A few brain farts and questionable calls in there.
16th for Penalties received, and 20thfor penalty conversion (low sample size 1 from 2, but even the one we scored was a bit iffy)

We've scored ONCE this season from a counter attack. 20th in the league. The chance quality here you would expect to be pretty high, but we're dead last in conversion....

considering we're 5th in the league for Total Big chances missed, with 54!:
Brentford is the only other bottom half club in this Leaderboard's top 10.
We've missed alot more big chances than even Arsenal, and they've had a few.
Luton have less than half our big chances missed, with only 23! Burnley (34) and Sheffield (33) fare similarly.

Now this is a big deal, if we hardly have the ball yet we're converting so few counters, are ranking so high in big chances missed, it points to player finishing skill/confidence, and perhaps a bit of luck. We have the chances, many are decent, and some are big, yet we don't take them.

Dyche probably is justified in talking about these being the reasons we're not doing better, the only problem with him putting it forward is that he's in a no win situation, as he dents the confidence of the players if he continues whilst, validly, justifying his own performance.

777Kidnappings wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 3:04 am I think blaming dyche for our shortfall in XG is just another way of saying you don't like how we play. Past the argument he signed some of the players who can't finish it's not on him or any manager. The scrappy chances argument I think just shows where we are unlucky rather than poor finishing

If you keep pumping the ball long to contests how can you expect to create good chances it’s all dependent on luck or mistakes from their defences like our last 3 goals all from luck and 2 goalkeepers errors

I think Dyche has done enough this season to warrant a bit more time and patience. Especially given everything that is happening.

It is a bit of a marriage of convenience. Dyche is happy to manage us in extraordinary circumstances and just get on with the job and we get an experienced, committed management team. It’s not perfect but in the current situation, it’s not all that bad.

The key to doing better next season is addressing our attacking play. Defensively we have been really good this year, but whether Dyche will want to forgo the defensive shape for a bit more risk remains to be seen. I would really like to see us step up a bit further in our defensive line. That will need a new right back who is quick with good recovery abilities. With Myko, Jarrad, Tark and a new RB, we could press that bit higher and win possession more often. Tark would be a little further forward as a CB with Jarrad dropping to sweep up.

We also need a creative midfielder. It’s been far too boring and static in the middle. I expected more from Onana in this respect, and I don’t see how you can continue to play Garner and Onana or Gueye and progress as a team. It’s just too defensive.

Kerryblueboy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:28 am If you keep pumping the ball long to contests how can you expect to create good chances it’s all dependent on luck or mistakes from their defences like our last 3 goals all from luck and 2 goalkeepers errors

We're almost topping the league in "Total Big chances missed".

We're getting plenty of chances, yet missing considerably more than most other teams. Only Man City, Liverpool Brentford (another outlier) and Chelsea are above us.

Kerryblueboy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 9:28 am If you keep pumping the ball long to contests how can you expect to create good chances it’s all dependent on luck or mistakes from their defences like our last 3 goals all from luck and 2 goalkeepers errors

You're having a different debate. Xg takes the quality of chances into consideration.

777Kidnappings wrote: You're having a different debate. Xg takes the quality of chances into consideration.

xG takes some factors into account but certainly not all and it’s not beyond the realms that there’s something to Dyche’s style that is missing.

xG uses:

Distance to the goal.

Angle to the goal​.

Goalkeeper position

The clarity the shooter has of the goal mouth, based on the positions of other players.

The amount of pressure they are under from the opposition defenders.

Shot type, such as which foot the shooter used or whether it was a volley/header/one-on-one.

Pattern of play (e.g., open play, fast break, direct free-kick, corner kick, throw-in etc.).

Information on the previous action, such as the type of assist (e.g., through ball, cross etc.).

So the question is: is there something specific to our style of play or squad that the above would miss?

Off the top of my head I would say:

Our players are often “cold” on the ball because we barely have it.

A lot of our big chances are from scrambles - so not taken into account is how reactive we are being vs a planned move.

We have a lot of very one footed players - xG considers weak/strong foot but there are different levels to weakness.

Energy levels - a lot of our big chances come late in games after we’ve spent 70 minutes chasing the ball (or pressure numbers are really high)

StirlingBlue wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 12:15 pm xG takes some factors into account but certainly not all and it’s not beyond the realms that there’s something to Dyche’s style that is missing.

xG uses:

Distance to the goal.

Angle to the goal​.

Goalkeeper position

The clarity the shooter has of the goal mouth, based on the positions of other players.

The amount of pressure they are under from the opposition defenders.

Shot type, such as which foot the shooter used or whether it was a volley/header/one-on-one.

Pattern of play (e.g., open play, fast break, direct free-kick, corner kick, throw-in etc.).

Information on the previous action, such as the type of assist (e.g., through ball, cross etc.).

So the question is: is there something specific to our style of play or squad that the above would miss?

Off the top of my head I would say:

Our players are often “cold” on the ball because we barely have it.

A lot of our big chances are from scrambles - so not taken into account is how reactive we are being vs a planned move.

We have a lot of very one footed players - xG considers weak/strong foot but there are different levels to weakness.

Energy levels - a lot of our big chances come late in games after we’ve spent 70 minutes chasing the ball (or pressure numbers are really high)

The angle of the dangle is equal to the throb of the knob.

Gary1878 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 10:03 am I think Dyche has done enough this season to warrant a bit more time and patience. Especially given everything that is happening.

It is a bit of a marriage of convenience. Dyche is happy to manage us in extraordinary circumstances and just get on with the job and we get an experienced, committed management team. It’s not perfect but in the current situation, it’s not all that bad.

The key to doing better next season is addressing our attacking play. Defensively we have been really good this year, but whether Dyche will want to forgo the defensive shape for a bit more risk remains to be seen. I would really like to see us step up a bit further in our defensive line. That will need a new right back who is quick with good recovery abilities. With Myko, Jarrad, Tark and a new RB, we could press that bit higher and win possession more often. Tark would be a little further forward as a CB with Jarrad dropping to sweep up.

We also need a creative midfielder. It’s been far too boring and static in the middle. I expected more from Onana in this respect, and I don’t see how you can continue to play Garner and Onana or Gueye and progress as a team. It’s just too defensive.

What on earth would a creative midfielder do in this side?

We don't want the ball, we don't play with the ball, we don't want to create from open play, we want to play for territory and win a corner

Creative midfielder would be on the bench to come on with 10 minutes to go to try and rescue something dyche doesn’t do creative skilful players they wouldn’t graft enough

I’d imagine all managers want grafters who can play a bit, too.

brap2 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 1:00 pm What on earth would a creative midfielder do in this side?

We don't want the ball, we don't play with the ball, we don't want to create from open play, we want to play for territory and win a corner

Because we don’t have a creative midfielder maybe?

NickNack wrote: ↑Thu Apr 11, 2024 4:19 pm Because we don’t have a creative midfielder maybe?

Partly yes probably, and probably rightly so!

And also partly because the brontosaurus eats the leaves, the tyrannosaurus eats the bronosaurus.