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Bournemouth A, Newcastle A and Burnley H to avoid an unwanted record. Surely we can beat Burnley at home.

Shogun wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:35 pm Bournemouth A, Newcastle A and Burnley H to avoid an unwanted record. Surely we can beat Burnley at home.

Well, statistically speaking, the law of averages suggests that not only are we due, but there are also conditions surrounding that suggest that it should be a likely occurrence. So its not the outlier at all, it's a catchy tagline.

Is there one like that that says what seasons we won 4 games in a row, whilst cemented in the lower-bottom half of the table?

I can think of a number of bottom clubs (which is what we currently are) in very recent years that have had runs that make those stats look tame. Even a couple in our league right now that, if not for a suprise win against a similarly poor club, would have not had a win in 12, or 14 respectively.

brap2 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:37 pm

We simply make poor chances from poor play. We win the ball high up and suddenly realise nobody has any idea where the ball should go.

Compare that to how many times united got in to Pickford in 1,2 passes. They had a pattern and repeated it. We lump it in the box, blocked shot from 30 yards, and repeat that until we lose it.

United were more dangerous from our possession today then we were. Waiting to break every time.

The other thing this graph says, that I neglected to mention earlier, is that for the majority of the season we have actually been outperforming the league average, when it comes to this statistic, 'average quality of shot'. We've spent more weeks above the league average than below it.

Not only does it show what appear to be small variances about the mean (given the numbers that contribute to it), which you'd expect in any similar statistic, we also don't have any comparative data from other clubs to show how we compare, ie. whether our variances are significantly higher, lower or otherwise, simply average. It doesn't really say much at all. A 5-game rolling average, which isn't statistically representative, doesn't even this out or provide any more weight to the claim.

Design and analysis in this area (even at heralded sources such as the Athletic) leaves a lot to be desired, as it seems do the level of understanding of the people making claims on their analysis, and the ability of the general public to be able to interpret its significance, or otherwise.

If Dyche Einstein keeps believing we just have to keep doing what we're doing and not adapt it... we will keep getting the same outcomes. Lots of chances, no goals.... simples.

Cods wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:32 am The other thing this graph says, that I neglected to mention earlier, is that for the majority of the season we have actually been outperforming the league average, when it comes to this statistic, 'average quality of shot'. We've spent more weeks above the league average than below it.

Not only does it show what appear to be small variances about the mean (given the numbers that contribute to it), which you'd expect in any similar statistic, we also don't have any comparative data from other clubs to show how we compare, ie. whether our variances are significantly higher, lower or otherwise, simply average. It doesn't really say much at all. A 5-game rolling average, which isn't statistically representative, doesn't even this out or provide any more weight to the claim.

Design and analysis in this area (even at heralded sources such as the Athletic) leaves a lot to be desired, as it seems do the level of understanding of the people making claims on their analysis, and the ability of the general public to be able to interpret its significance, or otherwise.

With all these things we are so good at it’s a wonder we aren’t in the top 10 except a lot of these xg and charts can be looked at in many different ways but the one constant is if he doesn’t change some of what he is doing we are fucked

Cods wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:32 am The other thing this graph says, that I neglected to mention earlier, is that for the majority of the season we have actually been outperforming the league average, when it comes to this statistic, 'average quality of shot'. We've spent more weeks above the league average than below it.

Not only does it show what appear to be small variances about the mean (given the numbers that contribute to it), which you'd expect in any similar statistic, we also don't have any comparative data from other clubs to show how we compare, ie. whether our variances are significantly higher, lower or otherwise, simply average. It doesn't really say much at all. A 5-game rolling average, which isn't statistically representative, doesn't even this out or provide any more weight to the claim.

Design and analysis in this area (even at heralded sources such as the Athletic) leaves a lot to be desired, as it seems do the level of understanding of the people making claims on their analysis, and the ability of the general public to be able to interpret its significance, or otherwise.

Nah

If we had competent owners and better looking finances I'd be happy to part ways in the summer even though I quite like Dyche.

Under the current set up though I genuinely believe we'd end up with Wayne Rooney as manager.

Kerryblueboy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 9:16 am With all these things we are so good at it’s a wonder we aren’t in the top 10 except a lot of these xg and charts can be looked at in many different ways but the one constant is if he doesn’t change some of what he is doing we are fucked

The reason we're not in the top half, apart from the 6 points taken from us is simply that we are missing the shots that average players wouldn't.

We're more than a dozen goals down on what an average team would be, the next worst in the league is around 4 goals down, so it's pretty clear that despite the assumptions around xG modelling (that can be questionable), there is no doubt that this is the main reason we're down near the bottom. We're a huge outlier when it comes to converting chances.

We've also had a couple of games where the keepers have had an absolute blinder too.

Dyche can't kick the ball in the goal for them, when everthing else says we're getting enough opportunity to score.

My biggest crib with Dyche at the minute is simple that no one has picked up on in this thread....he came in talking about the mental strength of the players/squad. He started working on it and early in the season you could see the benefits of it and it was working. He even got DCL back as a regular when he himself admitted he had "mental issues". We got the big deduction and had a bit of a bounce off it...again the mental attitude was there for all to see....
Here's my crib....since that bounce the mental attitude and strength has obviously drained from the team/squad...The defence is quite sound.....the midfield when all the top midfielders are in there is quite sound...the forwards play is basically none existent and here's where the lack of confidence spreads backwards through the team for me...
Now you can claim its it's DYCHE tactics but all the stats that get posted show we do actually create chances BUT MISS THEM...that's not down to DYCHE.....that's down to the players on the pitch.
So come on DYCHEY get your psychologists working again and earning their corn.

“ the forwards play is basically none existent”

Pretty sure that’s all down to coaching and tactics, but each to their own

Why is everything so binary?

It’s not all on the players, and it’s not all on dyche either.

We don’t create enough good chances, so that’s an issue dyche needs to sort out, but when we have created good chances the players have struggled to convert.

Cereal Killer wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:47 am “ the forwards play is basically none existent”

Pretty sure that’s all down to coaching and tactics, but each to their own

youre reading it wrong it should read "the forward's" play..ie: the forwards..not the whole team going forward...

TheRam wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:58 am Why is everything so binary?

It’s not all on the players, and it’s not all on dyche either.

We don’t create enough good chances, so that’s an issue dyche needs to sort out, but when we have created good chances the players have struggled to convert.

The statistician freaks on here would disagree...but i wholeheartedly agree with your second comment.

Sarri has left Lazio...

Rafa has also been sacked