The NSNO Everton Forums

Kerryblueboy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:31 pm Rafa has also been sacked

and I had a giant shit this morning, what's your point?

brap2 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:41 pm See this feels detached from reality to me.

It is fair to say dyche has done a good job with his low block.

It is fair to say dyche does less well when the team is asked to step up or create an opportunity.

Is it not then fair to say that someone else could feasibly do a good job at both? Or a slightly less good job at one and better at the other? Or worse at both?

Why is Dyche the absolute best possible performance we could ever imagine?

It's ok to say, we can't afford to sack him tbh.

It's madness to say, all managers are exactly the same or worse than dyche.

I was making a shitty comment in response to a shitty comment. Don't read too much into it.

Watched that earlier, and came away wondering what games he and the interviewer have been watching recently.

I wish one of these staff he trusts and are honest with him after games would tell him to stop playing Godfrey right back

TheRam wrote: ↑Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:58 am Why is everything so binary?

It’s not all on the players, and it’s not all on dyche either.

We don’t create enough good chances, so that’s an issue dyche needs to sort out, but when we have created good chances the players have struggled to convert.

Why is everything perceived to be binary when it likely isn't intended to be? Or more to the point, why isn't it more commonly understood that social media, this medium, is problematic? It is polarising at the best of times, with only written communication, no body language, across cultures and languages, with (mostly) no real relationship with the person they're conversing with, something that is effectively equivalent to hundreds of people shouting in a darkened crowded room. I agree that this gets lost in the thrust and we're all guilty at some point.

Everyone is putting forward their opinion, or arguing a point and either attempting to back it up, or not, but what is missing is that there's no real duty on anyone, nor seemingly time available or effort spent, for everyone to preface each of their opinions with nuance, care and full explanation each time they make a comment. And then there's misinterpretation. And few ask for clarification. Or agree with parts of someone else's points. Those reading are mostly going to frame their response to "some person on the internet", rather than "Oh that's TheRam, he thinks 'a', 'b' and 'c' about this particular situation...

I don't think anyone on here disagrees with the broad statement that it's partly the players and partly the manager. We're all in the middle somewhere, but we have to clarify our positions, which leads to many assuming “TheRam totally backs Dyche” or vice versa, when both are far from the truth.


On the footy, we have created a cumulative total of chances to date better than 11 teams in the league. Yet we have actually scored more than only two teams in the league. This is a very big discrepancy. Whether they're a small number of easy chances, or a large number of difficult chances, the stats show based upon best reporting available that we're heavily under-performing in the most vital area, actually putting it in the net. That at least is incontrovertible.

That some/most of our chances might be lower quality (I don't know, as there has been no reliable stats that I've seen that back up this assertion, but the general consensus seems to be that they are, and to the eye it looks that way, so fair enough), this doesn't change the basis for the assumption that; for any given number of goals scored by a team in a season, they will either come about from 'only few but easy chances' up to 'many but difficult chances', or a mixture, all else being equal. This is baked into the maths and is applied to xG. So either the xG gods have made fundamental errors when it comes to defining their models (and it unfairly impacts Everton), or they are regularly miscalculating Everton's xG more than any other team, or most likely that we're simply missing chances that the stats suggests we should be scoring.

On the general perspective that “we can focus on creating fewer but better quality chances, by changing our setup”, the problem is that knowing we're not great finishers, this might actually make the problem worse. We still might not score. If we get say 10 good chances and miss a couple more than we should, this might be more damaging than having 100 poor chances and missing more than we should. Under-performance could become worse than it already is. Going for more and better chances is likely to weaken our over-performing defence. Where's the sweet spot?

It's obviously not all as exacting as this, and there will be things that make it not a zero sum game, synergies etc, it's just whether shifting the levers will overall improve us or make us worse. Do we go toe to toe with Tottenham, etc? Remaining on this course at least suggests that things should improve by the very process of repeated actions ultimately converge toward a mathematical average, and huge variances like our xG variance should improve.

The players, as does the manager, also need to be given credit for creating situations that have led to this relatively high cumulative number of chances, given our apparently defensive approach. The same for both in regard to how, by the stats, we've conceded a total of almost 5 goals fewer than we should have.

I'd argue that Dyche's role in changing the team setup to create better chances is possible (but based upon our squad's characteristics probably limited). His ability to improve finishing in a given set of players is also limited, despite practice no doubt improving a player marginally over time, it's more down to the player's individual ability, especially given they're mostly so advanced in their career that they're playing premier league football. For example Gana is very unlikely to develop Harry Kane-levels of finishing any time soon with extra work 'on the grass'. lol

Nice to see pics of them with the ball. That's the key ingredient imo.

I'd hate to go to Portugal with Sean Dyche tbh. Would kinda take the gloss off the trip. Be like going to the Seychelles with Bernard Manning.

Bluedylan1 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:03 am I'd hate to go to Portugal with Sean Dyche tbh. Would kinda take the gloss off the trip. Be like going to the Seychelles with Bernard Manning.

I'd just want to wish you well.



Oh, Manning ... who the hell is that?

Bluedylan1 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:03 am I'd hate to go to Portugal with Sean Dyche tbh. Would kinda take the gloss off the trip. Be like going to the Seychelles with Bernard Manning.

Genuinely surprised we could afford it, Moshiri must have taken the empties back or found a bit of coin down the back of the sofa.

Nice that he brought a reporter to ask loads of nice questions and praise him every two seconds as well

It annoys me, the way he is sittingn

Can’t really argue with anything he’s saying tbf - if the team knew how to score we’d be about a dozen points higher ffs

Why won't they just score more goals? Are they stupid?

Shogun wrote: ↑Wed Mar 13, 2024 2:14 pm Why won't they just score more goals? Are they stupid?

Nah, just goal-shy