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Shogun wrote: ↑Sun Oct 13, 2024 12:39 pm

This is a criticism of the content, from the fantasy* PL and opta, not the post.

Not sure why opta analyst would generate this for any reason other than maybe promoting discussion on its own validity, as it's almost meaningless.

Barely 18% of the season has been completed so far.

This analysis runs a very funny line between statistical insignificance, and meaninglessness.

The vertical axis is a joke in that it's a contrived measurement with no explanation as to how it has been derived or what the scale represents, and despite the appearance of a wide range, the variance has all teams within a tiny range between the so called toughest and weakest average opponent.

The horizontal axis being simply an alternate representation of the league table, just horizontally.

A masterclass in 'How to crunch numbers yet provide nothing of value'.

Sad state of the league when you can say that's pretty much how it's going to end.
Put wolves above Leicester and then us, Leicester, Palace and Bournemouth get to fight it out for the last relegation place

superpull wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 8:29 am Sad state of the league when you can say that's pretty much how it's going to end.
Put wolves above Leicester and then us, Leicester, Palace and Bournemouth get to fight it out for the last relegation place

I’d be very surprised if wolves finish above us and Bournemouth.

I don’t see what’s changed so dramatically to see us go from 12th last season to 17th?

TheRam wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:09 am I’d be very surprised if wolves finish above us and Bournemouth.

I don’t see what’s changed so dramatically to see us go from 12th last season to 17th?

I think the galvanising effect of those points deductions isn't happening this season.

Wolves are the only team clearly in the wrong position, and that chart hears that out a little bit

superpull wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:19 am I think the galvanising effect of those points deductions isn't happening this season.

Wolves are the only team clearly in the wrong position, and that chart hears that out a little bit

We were playing well when we got the deduction.

Can you really say it had such a galvanising effect when we went four months without a win not long after it?

I said at the start of the season we’d probably finish 12th, with some luck on the injury front maybe push top half.

Wolves are better than bottom of the league but they’ve sold their two best players without replacing them and have a poor manager imo.

TheRam wrote: ↑Mon Oct 14, 2024 9:38 am We were playing well when we got the deduction.

Can you really say it had such a galvanising effect when we went four months without a win not long after it?

I said at the start of the season we’d probably finish 12th, with some luck on the injury front maybe push top half.

Wolves are better than bottom of the league but they’ve sold their two best players without replacing them and have a poor manager imo.

The media narrative is what people remember.

14 points from 13 games until we went on the run.
Wasn't exactly setting the world alight.

However, I do agree that we had some encouraging stats and play patterns in those games, even when we got beat.
Unlike quite a few of the games so far this year

Think last year the trend tended to be - good xg performance, not meeting that with results.

Don't think the same can be said this season, where we've probably regressed across both metris and results.

Think people might be talking about us in relegation terms due to you know the last five years, the context around the club, and the fact we've lost 4/7 games so far.

I mean, we're likely going to be in the mix. I don't think you make the start we did and amble to safety.

I don't love the fact that 2 of the 3 in the bottom 3 currently are teams you'd expect to improve (Wolves, Palace). However, slumps can take a while to turn around and the longer they're struggling the more likely they'll be in the in the bottom 6 toward the end of the season.

3 out of the following 7 I'd say: Southampton, Ipswich, Leicester, Bournemouth, Wolves, Palace and Us.

I think Forest are showing that plodding consistency and more defensive acumen under Nuno. So I think with their start I'd not include them in the mix right now unless the wheels come off. Brentford are still seemingly ok without Toney. They'd be the only other two that I might add to that group.

Fairly favourable run over the next five games. Things might be different by the time the derby comes around.

Toddacelli wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 6:04 pm Fairly favourable run over the next five games. Things might be different by the time the derby comes around.

We can only hope so

Toddacelli wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 6:04 pm Fairly favourable run over the next five games. Things might be different by the time the derby comes around.

The derby is the start of a very tough 5 games... Chelsea, Villa, City and Spurs

Paddockoldie wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 8:04 pm The derby is the start of a very tough 5 games... Chelsea, Villa, City and Spurs

Yeah. Kinda means we need to do well in those.

Maybe it was an off day for them, but surprised how all over the place Ipswich were today. If that is how they play regularly this season, they'll be bottom 3.

Southampton too...oof that's a tough one for them.

So nothing guaranteed but those two certainly in the mix. Question remains who the third team will be.

Assuming they lose tomorrow against City then 7 points over Wolves is pretty significant. Hard to see we'll be in any sort of battle having seen Ipswich today and also Southampton. Leicester aren't better than us either.